Are we ready for a Sara Duterte presidency in 2028?
By Dr. Nick Alviar
Dean, School of Politics and Governance
“In the Philippine case, while our institutions are imperfect and are facing seemingly insurmountable obstacles, it is worthwhile commending some institutions which are approximating the prescriptions of Acemoglu and Robinson.”
In my previous article, I pointed out the various factors leading to a likelihood of Vice President Sara Duterte winning the presidency in 2028. Expectedly, many sectors, groups, and even foreign communities are apprehensive at such a prospect. I remember many groups raised the same concerns and alarm when President Digong Duterte won the presidency in 2016, knowing his personality, style of leadership, record in Davao, and campaign promises. We survived six years of his –some say, horrible—presidency. We look back in hindsight, and we realize that we managed as a nation to go through tough times during those years. I tend to think that what helped us move on despite the challenges is our institutions. In my view, we have reached the stage when some of our institutions can temper populists and politicians with authoritarian tendencies in our personality centered, oftentimes, chaotic politics. It is true that generally, we still have a long way to go if we compare our institutions to those of Japan, France, UK, Sweden, Australia, New Zealand, etc. But I think since the struggles during Martial Law and the coming of the people power revolution in 1986, we have been building reliable institutions which contribute to keep our process of democratization and economic development progressively stabilizing over the years.
The importance of institutions is the main argument of 2024 Nobel prize winners for economics, Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, as discussed in their 2012 classic work “Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty.” In simple terms, nations fail or succeed depending on the strength and quality of institutions. Nations fail because of weak, politics driven, elite-captured, extractive institutions. Nations succeed if institutions are strong, efficient, inclusive, democratic.
In the Philippine case, while our institutions are imperfect and are facing seemingly insurmountable obstacles, it is worthwhile commending some institutions which are approximating the prescriptions of Acemoglu and Robinson.
The Supreme Court, for example, the country’s final arbiter of law and is considered the last bastion of democracy — an institution made up of highly qualified 15 justices of “proven competence, integrity, probity and independence” — has been executing its functions with credibility, worthy of respect, in a non-partisan way.
Our Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is another national institution that has been performing excellently in managing our monetary policy particularly, which has not only stabilized but has also upgraded our banking system with far-reaching effects in our economic progress. Just last March this year, BSP received from the London-based Central Banking Awards 2026, the global recognition for excellent reserve management.
From the dark years of Martial Law, the Armed Forced of the Philippines (AFP) has taken substantial and deep-rooted measures to professionalize the institution and to ensure its apolitical character. During the 35th anniversary of AFP Code of Conduct last Oct. 5, 2025, AFP Chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. declared, “I would like to express my gratitude to the entire AFP for remaining solid, united and professional despite the political noise, the political chaos that is happening in our country.” For several years now, the AFP has partnered with the Institute for Solidarity in Asia (ISA) in “promoting good governance and institutional transformation through the implementation of the AFP Transformation Roadmap (AFPTR) and the AFPTR Institutionalization Pathway (AFPTRIP) as blueprints for reform, modernization, and sustained transparency within the military organization.”
It is worthwhile noting that one of the more professional departments of the National Government is the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev), formerly, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA). Comprised mostly by professional experts in economics, policy analysis, development, and finance, DEPDev has been silently but effectively performing its functions as “the Philippines’ primary executive agency for socioeconomic planning, policy formulation, and development monitoring.”
Then, we have robust, courageous, patriotic, countless, consistent-through-the-years, civil society organizations which are doing their share of promoting the common good, and welfare of the Filipinos. There are simply too many of them, but I would like to mention a few exceptional ones. Invited even by other countries regularly to assist in their elections, the non-partisan watchdog mostly made up of thousands of patriotic volunteers from different religious, civic, business, professional, labor, youth, educational, and nongovernment organizations, the National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL), has been around each election time since 1983 to ensure “free, orderly and honest elections” in the country.
There is also Galing Pook (GP) Foundation, “a leading resource institution that recognizes, capacitates, and promotes innovation, sustainability, citizen empowerment, and excellence in local governance.” Since 1993, GP has empowered hundreds of local government units to develop programs and social innovations benefiting countless Filipinos.
In my next article, I will continue discussing institutional development in the Philippines which gives hope towards our journey to democracy and economic progress.
Dr. Alviar, with all due respect, the argument that the Philippines can simply “survive” a Sara Duterte presidency because the country survived Rodrigo Duterte’s administration mistakes endurance for success. A democracy should not measure itself merely by whether it collapses completely. The real question is whether institutions, accountability, civil liberties, and public trust become stronger or weaker under political leadership.
And on that metric, complacency is dangerous.
Survival Is Not the Same as Health. A patient who survives a disease is not necessarily healthy afterward.